http://www.moneyspidery.com/2012/02/04/2g-indian-banking-sector-should-be-able-to-absorb-loan-losses-says-fitch/
Indian banks’ exposure to the telecom companies that are losing 2G
licenses is around 0.6% of total loans. However, around half of the
exposure is in the form of financial guarantees towards future payments
of license fees.
State Bank of India has confirmed that, once the licenses are cancelled, those guarantees should no longer be in force.
While the future of smaller telecom operators in India remains uncertain, we note that some of the operators that have lost licenses also have other fairly significant operations that are not affected by the ruling, which may provide some respite to their creditors.
In total, therefore, the volume of loans that are affected by the license cancellations may be less than 0.2% of the sector’s total loan book. Assuming a conservative level of write-offs on these loans, we believe that banks’ credit quality will not be materially weakened, but that annual profits could fall by up to 10%.
The Supreme Court on Thursday ordered the cancellation of 122 licenses granted in 2008 following a drawn-out investigation into corrupt practices surrounding the granting of the licenses. The current licenses will remain in place for four months.
While the impact is limited, we believe the cancellation of the 2G licenses highlights the Indian banking sector’s exposure to infrastructure – a sector that continues to face high regulatory and execution risks.
he Indian banking sector should be able
to absorb loan-losses stemming from the cancellation of 2G mobile
licenses without materially impairing credit quality, according to a
report by Fitch Ratings. However, the ratings firm believes annual
profits will still take a hit.
State Bank of India has confirmed that, once the licenses are cancelled, those guarantees should no longer be in force.
While the future of smaller telecom operators in India remains uncertain, we note that some of the operators that have lost licenses also have other fairly significant operations that are not affected by the ruling, which may provide some respite to their creditors.
In total, therefore, the volume of loans that are affected by the license cancellations may be less than 0.2% of the sector’s total loan book. Assuming a conservative level of write-offs on these loans, we believe that banks’ credit quality will not be materially weakened, but that annual profits could fall by up to 10%.
The Supreme Court on Thursday ordered the cancellation of 122 licenses granted in 2008 following a drawn-out investigation into corrupt practices surrounding the granting of the licenses. The current licenses will remain in place for four months.
While the impact is limited, we believe the cancellation of the 2G licenses highlights the Indian banking sector’s exposure to infrastructure – a sector that continues to face high regulatory and execution risks.
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